By JTFMax:

According to a recent report by Moody's Analytics, a slow recession is likely in 2023. While the current unemployment rate is at 3.7%, it will rise to 4.2% by 2023. Moody's compared to the long-term average of 4.7%. However, Moody says that the financial system is not affected by imbalances. Therefore, the economy is still strong enough to avoid a recession.

In a recent survey, Bloomberg reported that most economists believe a 2023 recession is possible. Eight in 10 expect a budget deficit to grow and taxes will increase. In addition, the telecommunications and durable goods sectors will be hard hit by the tighter credit environment.

Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody's Analytics, believes the US economy will withstand the downturn. He argues that the consumer is a "firewall" between recessions. Although Zandi is skeptical of the most optimistic forecasts, he is not worried about the future.

A recent National Bureau of Economic Research survey shows that more business leaders predict a slowdown in 2023 than any other year since 2006. Business leaders are also more confident that a recession is likely. Yet, despite the weak economic growth, the job market remains strong. And while the Fed is trying to rein in inflation, its monetary policy is close to reaching its target level of nearly 5%.

Goldman Sachs, one of the most prominent Wall Street names, also predicts a soft landing for the US economy. Although the firm expects a slight decrease in GDP, it indicates that inflation will ease and real wages will rise. They are also optimistic about the economy's ability to weather the storm in 2023.

Other high-profile Wall Street names, including Bank of America's CEO Brian Moynihan, have similar outlooks. Recently, Moynihan told CNN's Poppy Harlow that a "mild" recession is probable. Similarly, JPMorgan Chase researchers have a similar outlook.

But the debate over the downturn's duration and the recession's depth remains. Some analysts believe a recession will begin as early as this year. Others have a more cautious approach. For instance, BlackRock analysts say that a recession will occur if the Fed cannot rein in high inflation. That would pressure corporate earnings, leading investors to cut stock prices. But, ultimately, the Fed can rein in inflation without a recession.

However, those with a less-cautious outlook are unsure whether the US economy is headed for a downturn in 2023. Many Wall Street economists have predicted a mild recession this year. Another analyst, Fitch Ratings, has a similar outlook.

Moody's Analytics has forecast a 1% growth rate in 2023, compared to the 0.8% growth expected in the third quarter of this year. It also predicts that the economy will be able to avoid a recession next year. Meanwhile, it has forecast a 3% rise in the unemployment rate in the first half of 2023, which is above the long-term average.